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Biffle, Bowyer looking to clinch last two Chase spots at Richmond

Autoracing Betting Lines

09/08/2010 - Richmond, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Saturday, September 11. Race: Air Guard 400. Site: Richmond International Raceway. Track:0.75-mile oval. Start time: 7:30 p.m. (et). Laps: 400. Miles: 300. 2009 winner: Denny Hamlin. Television: ABC. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN) /SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.

Heading into Saturday's regular season-ending race at Richmond International Raceway, 10 drivers have already secured a spot in the 12-man field for the championship Chase.

The last two Chase berths technically remain up for grabs, but Greg Biffle is almost assured he will make the playoffs. Biffle, currently 11th in points, is 161 points ahead of 13th-place Ryan Newman and needs only a 42nd-place finish or better, regardless of where Newman finishes, to lock down his position.

"We basically just have to start the race in Richmond to lock in our Chase spot, but I won't breathe easy until we finish that race," Biffle said.

Clint Bowyer, presently 12th in the standings, holds a comfortable 117-point advantage over Newman, but anything can happen, especially on the three- quarter-mile Richmond track.

"I need to make sure I don't screw up, first and foremost," Bowyer said. "In the end, you need to make sure you don't beat yourself. I've been in this situation before. Even though there is a lot of pressure, we need to go out there and do what we've been doing all year long."

If Bowyer finishes 28th or better, he will qualify for the Chase. Bowyer has performed well at Richmond during his Cup career, finishing no worse than 18th in nine races here.

"Richmond is definitely the place I feel the most comfortable laying it out on the line," Bowyer added. "It's one of my favorite race tracks where I've won at in the past, so it gives us an extra boost of confidence."

Bowyer's second and most recent Cup victory came in May 2008 at Richmond.

Three drivers -- Newman, Jamie McMurray and Mark Martin -- are outside the top-12 and have a very slim chance of making the Chase. Anyone within 161 points of 12th place mathematically remains in contention with one race to go before the Chase begins.

"Mathematically, we have a chance, and for an engineering guy, I guess that means something," Newman said. "But I can only try my hardest, and I did that [last Sunday at Atlanta]. We can't expect to make it all up in one shot."

Despite winning the Daytona 500 and the Brickyard 400 earlier this season, McMurray sits 128 points behind Bowyer in 14th place.

Martin is 147 points out in 15th. Martin, in his first season with Hendrick Motorsports last year, recorded five wins and finished second to champion and teammate Jimmie Johnson in points. The 51-year-old has yet to post a victory in 2010.

"These next 11 races are going to put me in a different position, and that might be interesting to me, because I can race each race with not so much to lose and everything to gain," Martin said.

When the 12-driver field for the Chase is determined, all qualifiers will have their point totals reset to 5,000. Each driver will then have 10 bonus points added for every race he won during the regular season.

Johnson, the four-time defending series champion, and Denny Hamlin have the most wins so far this season with five each. Kevin Harvick, the current points leader, and Kyle Busch are next in line with three victories apiece.

Hamlin won last year's fall race at Richmond. Hamlin, from nearby Chesterfield, VA, led 299 of 400 laps and held off Kurt Busch after a late- race restart to win a Cup race at his home track for the first time.

"I love coming back here, and I love the race track and seeing friends and family," Hamlin said. "I don't think that will ever wear off. Winning here was something I'll never forget, but I enjoy just being at that track."

Forty-eight teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Air Guard 400.

Mattias Ekstrom will drive the No.83 Red Bull Racing Toyota in place of Reed Sorenson. The Swedish driver made his NASCAR debut with Red Bull in June at Sonoma, CA, where he finished 21st. Ekstrom, Reed Sorenson and Casey Mears have been sharing driving duties in the No.83 car since Brian Vickers had to curtail his season in May due to treatment for blood clots.


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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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